Notes from an article by Ian Bremmer in the Economist - I don’t always agree with Ian, but in this case…you decide.
The decision by Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine may have been the worst strategic decision in twenty years. There is NO outcome in Ukraine that won’t leave Russia far worse off than before the war:
Thousands of young Russian soldiers’ lives have been lost - many of them conscripts.
While Putin has claimed that the two countries are ‘one people,’ he instead has given Ukraine a real national identity and made Russia into its bitter enemy.
He has exposed that his military is ineffectual and the billions spent on modernizing it as wasted.
He has strengthened NATO and given other countries a reason to join, Finland and Sweden, for example.
It has driven NATO members to spend more on defense.
Some have dispatched troops to Russia’s border.
It has convinced Europe to stop buying Russia’s most valuable exports.
The sanctions and export controls will inflect generational damage.
Failed to prepare the Russian citizens for the human cost of the mission.
How has it helped the west?
Shows the value of modern tanks as minimal in modern battles.
He exposed the relative weakness of the Russian Military.
However, a cornered man is more apt to use nuclear weapons - can we dare hope that they are in as poor a state as the rest of the military weapons?
What items/observations do you have to add to the list?
Putin's worldview is obsolete, but he came by it honestly. He sees Russia still threatened from the West. Two episodes of multiple, million-man armies invading and killing tens of millions of Russians will do that to you.
Europe's, and due to nukes, the world's acute problem, is that Russia's border nations increasingly chaff at the Russian view of them all as buffer regions to be managed by the Kremlin, with satraps appointed, military presence maintained if and when deemed appropriate, etc. It's a situation analogous to, say, Canada demanding permanent final authority over US border states... or Mexico. Humans are involved, not going to happen.
I think the strategic blunder that got us here was when GHWB glibly assured the collapsing Soviets that America would essentially neuter all the Russian border states...forevermore, i.e., NATO would not expand eastward. He had neither those states, the American people, nor the two thirds of the Senate required for what was essentially a treaty behind him. It shows.
Putin now casually points to the fact that America has not kept GHWB's empty promises as the basis of wrecking Ukraine.
I think the best we can hope for now is that Putin will declare victory and establish another North Korea in Southeast Ukraine if it gets bad enough for long enough.
6,000 nuclear warheads is an ominous threat. But most are likely 40+ years old. Rust, corrosion and obsolescence have likely neutralized much of the arsenal. I am very sure our nuclear team understands the lifecycle in detail.
The DOD has publicly shown themselves unable to accurately predict or gauge Russian capability. Or is it an act? We don’t want Russia or China aware of just how much we know.
I agree a cornered man is a very dangerous man. That is what JFK feared during the Cuban missile crisis
Putin's worldview is obsolete, but he came by it honestly. He sees Russia still threatened from the West. Two episodes of multiple, million-man armies invading and killing tens of millions of Russians will do that to you.
Europe's, and due to nukes, the world's acute problem, is that Russia's border nations increasingly chaff at the Russian view of them all as buffer regions to be managed by the Kremlin, with satraps appointed, military presence maintained if and when deemed appropriate, etc. It's a situation analogous to, say, Canada demanding permanent final authority over US border states... or Mexico. Humans are involved, not going to happen.
I think the strategic blunder that got us here was when GHWB glibly assured the collapsing Soviets that America would essentially neuter all the Russian border states...forevermore, i.e., NATO would not expand eastward. He had neither those states, the American people, nor the two thirds of the Senate required for what was essentially a treaty behind him. It shows.
Putin now casually points to the fact that America has not kept GHWB's empty promises as the basis of wrecking Ukraine.
I think the best we can hope for now is that Putin will declare victory and establish another North Korea in Southeast Ukraine if it gets bad enough for long enough.
Good points Lee.
6,000 nuclear warheads is an ominous threat. But most are likely 40+ years old. Rust, corrosion and obsolescence have likely neutralized much of the arsenal. I am very sure our nuclear team understands the lifecycle in detail.
The DOD has publicly shown themselves unable to accurately predict or gauge Russian capability. Or is it an act? We don’t want Russia or China aware of just how much we know.
More questions than answers